Starting a Sleeper List

One of the best ways to get a jump on your competition and help you to correctly make some sticky decisions on draft day is to begin a list of sleeper players and undervalued performers in the offseason. If you start this file right after the Pro Bowl and maintain it up until the moment you draft, the list you end up with will be a personalized insider trading cheat sheet - one designed to deal you a contender's chance at your league championship.

In today's age of information saturation, there are almost never truly unknown "sleepers" anymore. Last year some owners found one such player in Saints seventh-round rookie receiver Marques Colston. But those opportunities are few, and far between. So despite the continued use of the term "sleeper" to make understanding simple, what you need to focus on is figuring out which players - rookies and veterans alike - will be value picks on draft day. These are the guys you can pick up in a lower round of your draft than their impending production would warrant, or who come more cheaply at auction than they should. A key to fantasy football is the accumulation of a few of these players each year.

For instance, though LaDainian Tomlinson is a fantasy force to be reckoned with, he clearly cannot be labeled a value selection for anyone this season, especially coming off his career year. If you have the top pick in a draft, you will likely scoop him up and have an advantage. But it is the chalk pick. In an auction, you will pay a commensurate amount for his services.

Instead, find players who offer value for any one of a number of reasons. Perhaps the player is considered a talented malcontent, but will be moving to a team with more discipline and better surrounding talent. Or maybe a guy is returning from a serious injury and is slightly under the radar. Conceivably some coaching switch will change the dynamic for the better on offense. Possibly the player simply is going to get the starter's share of touches in the backfield or targets in the passing game for the first time. No matter the reason, value is your goal.

Take out an actual piece of paper, or start a database to track players. Write down player names and add check marks next to the name of a particular player when you discover an advantage for him. Also put a mark next to a particular player's name when you agree with something positive that is written or discussed about him. Be sure to give some consideration to writers or beat guys whose opinion often differs from your own. You can agree to disagree later, but you never know when the right information will fall into your lap.

Come draft day, look at your list and see which players have the most marks next to their names. Figure out what you think will be necessary to acquire those guys, and go get them. Any number of factors can derail your best efforts to acquire value, but when you give it an earnest shot in this way, you succeed more often than you fail.

Below are five significant football milestones during the offseason. Pay close attention to what happens during these periods and how it affects fantasy football value. You will come away with nuggets of information regarding particular players that you can spend during a draft.

Free Agency — Despite transition and franchise tags, there are always a number of significant signings and sometimes trades during the free agency period. This is your first chance to think about what new starting rosters could look like come autumn. It is obvious that you should track the running backs, receivers and quarterbacks that leave various teams and end up somewhere else. This offseason featured a number of veteran running backs changing teams. See if you can figure out which one(s) will play well in a new place but not get a lot of hype going into drafts.

What is less obvious is the impact that role players have on stars. Maybe a team is able to add a couple of offensive linemen to upgrade the run game. Perhaps a team has added or subtracted a star fullback, somebody who can knock heads with anyone and clear huge holes for a back to run through. This kind of transition has a definite impact, but is not something that gets enough attention from fantasy owners.

Of equal importance is the changing of the guard at the coaching level. Different head coaches and offensive coordinators bring new schemes and focus to offenses, meaning more opportunity for some players, and less for others. Read about the tendencies of these coaches to get some idea about how they will impact fantasy players. On occasion, even position coaches can have a major impact. If a pro team brings in a respected line coach or a quarterback guru, that may bode well for the respective players.

NFL Draft — While it is true that rookie running backs as a group perform better than their counterparts at other positions, individual receivers, tight ends and even quarterbacks have become fantasy factors for owners right away in recent years. In my opinion, the real thing to watch is whether a rookie gets a legitimate opportunity right out of the gates. A player can have all the talent in the world, but if a star is ahead of him in the lineup, he is not going to help your fantasy team.

Skill position additions are important, but once again noticing high picks spent on offensive linemen is just as critical. For example, last year the Jets drafted top linemen with their top two picks. With a year's experience, DeBrickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold could make Thomas Jones a real bargain this year.

Minicamps and Organized Team Activities (OTA's) — You can get an early read on the rapport between players by paying attention to the news coming out of minicamps, Of particular interest is the early reports of chemistry between a quarterback and his receivers. Less than stellar reviews regarding the attitude of some players can signal a rift in team chemistry that could be detrimental to your fantasy squad when you most need the continuity later. Listen to news regarding who attends OTA's, and with whom. The bonds that players make together outside of formal football practice are always stronger than those enforced on the field.

Training camp — This is the time of position battles and injuries. Determine for yourself which running backs will emerge from tandem or committee circumstances to become bargains as a team's lone top back. You can figure this out by reading about who is running with the first team and how he looks doing it. Be aware however that some coaches use depth-chart tactics to motivate players who seem unable to light their own competitive fire. A coach might drop the team's true top back below a backup who is working hard, with hopes that the more talented runner will be embarrassed into playing with more pop and precision.

With receivers, keep an eye out for nagging injuries like hamstring pulls. That type of muscle tear can rear its head all season and really pull down production. Injuries are bound to occur for a number of players in training camp. Invariably there will be some star receivers and running backs that tear their ACL, break a leg or collarbone, or sustain a high ankle sprain. This thrusts backups into the spotlight and can be a wellspring of value, since many owners do not have a sense of the skill the backups can bring to the position, and often will not draft them as high as the owners should.

Preseason Games — Here is the chance to separate fact from fiction. You get to see how a player will actually be used. But, you must know what to key on. Closely follow the first two quarters of games, or for as long as the starters are on the field. Watch for positives such as strong yardage after the catch by receivers or a high yards per rush total by running backs - factors that cannot be affected by play-calling held in check by coaches unwilling to show their whole hand before the season starts.

The third preseason game, or penultimate one for teams with five games on the docket, is the one to watch most carefully. It is the game that coaches choose to play their starters for the longest time, usually at least three quarters and sometimes for the entire contest. Here you will get your best glimpse at what a team will do during the season, when given specific opportunities or pressed into particular circumstances by the opposition. Here is where you will find surprising go-to receivers or red-zone running backs.

Ignore the score. The preseason won-loss record does not mean a thing to fantasy football. Instead, pay attention to running backs with fumbling issues, or receivers dropping tons of passes. It doesn't matter how much a given player scores either, but you can learn a lot by noticing an increase in carries for a running back or targets for a tight end or wide receiver.

Joe's top 10 Value Picks for 2007:

Marion Barber — I don't think it will matter that Julius Jones likes the new offense or is in a contract year. Barber is the more productive runner, period. Once the coaching staff figures that out, expect Barber to get the goal-line carries again, but with more opportunity between the 20's.

Ronald Curry — He is the team's top wideout, not Jerry Porter, and he has been through enough adversity to appreciate what he can now create with a talented young quarterback. He can be drafted late and could pay off as a top third or solid second fantasy wide receiver.

Reggie Brown — Brown scored nine times last year and is ready to break out for a Philadelphia team that needs him to become a top receiver.

Jon Kitna — With a dedicated young stud receiver and better linemen added to the mix, Kitna will cut down on his interceptions and increase his touchdowns. Take him once most of the owners in your league have grabbed their starter, but before anyone thinks about picking up backups.

Thomas Jones — The Bears were wrong to let Jones take his production to New York. He will be an all-purpose back for the Jets and a steal for fantasy owners as their second back.

Philip Rivers — Rivers will be given more leeway in the passing game this year, and has two young receivers with a lot of promise at his disposal (Vincent Jackson and Craig Davis).

Ben Roethlisberger — A year removed from a motorcycle crash and removed appendix, Roethlisberger is in good shape to be a QB bargain. He has dependable Hines Ward and improving Santonio Holmes as targets.

Marques Colston — A lot of owners are skeptical about Colston's ability to produce now that he is the team's known top receiver. I think Colston is the real deal, and will easily be a top 10 fantasy wide receiver.

Greg Jennings — With Donald Driver pulling defensive attention elsewhere, watch Jennings reprise his role as a strong third fantasy wideout, with upside.

Edgerrin James — James is widely considered a mid-to-late second round draft choice this season. I predict him to produce like a first-round running back, and think you should take him at the end of the first round of a draft.